The U.S. auto industry appears poised to begin the year with seven consecutive monthly sales declines, despite the benefit of an additional selling day in July.

That ignominious milestone has happened two other times this decade: in 2017, as the industry came off a sales record, and in 2009 amid the throes of the Great Recession. It’s the latesat sign that, despite strong economic factors, the industry is settling back toward historical norms after years of growth.

TrueCar/ALG and J.D. Power/LMC predict light-vehicle deliveries will decline 2.9 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. Cox Automotive and Edmunds, however, call for modest gains around 0.5 percent.

Automakers are scheduled to report July sales results Thursday, though it will be the first month in which Fiat Chrysler joins General Motors and Ford in switching to quarterly releases.

The seasonally adjusted, annualized selling rate is projected to range from 16.5 million to 16.7 million — in line with most full-year estimates for sales to come in below 17 million for the first time since 2014. LMC, however, increased its forecast by 40,000 units to 17 million.

Even if the industry does snap its streak with a small July gain, analysts say it likely wouldn’t be a long-term trend.

“A lot of people are enjoying vacations and family time in July, so it’s generally not a strong month for auto sales,” Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ senior manager of insights, said in a statement. “The extra selling day makes things look a little better than they really are, and we still believe sales will continue to trend downward through the back half of the year.”

Incentive spending is expected to be mixed in July.

TrueCar’s ALG says incentive spending will fall 2.6 percent to $3,671 per vehicle, while it estimates the average transaction price for a new vehicle will rise 2.7 percent, or $897.

J.D. Power, meanwhile, is calling for per unit average incentive spending of $4,074, up from $3,849 last year, but that’s still in lockstep with the trend of customers buying higher-priced vehicles.

“Despite the continued slowdown in sales, consumers are expected to spend more than $2 billion more on new vehicles than last year,” Thomas King, senior vice president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, said in a statement. “This is a clear reflection that manufacturers are building the types of vehicles that shoppers want. Consumer expenditures in July of $39 billion represents the highest level for the month since 2017.”

Edmunds forecasts declines for all but two automakers: General Motors, which it says will post a 5.6 percent gain, and Hyundai/Kia, which it says will have a 9.9 percent gain.

Cox is more optimistic, predicting sales increases at GM (3 percent), Nissan (1.1 percent), Hyundai/Kia (4.9 percent), Volkswagen (2.3 percent) and Subaru (2.6 percent). If the prediction comes true, it would be Subaru’s 92nd consecutive monthly gain.

ALG, which splits Hyundai and Kia, forecasts gains for BMW (up 0.6 percent), Daimler (1.7 percent), Hyundai (6.2 percent) and Kia (3.4 percent). It also forecasts a 67.5 percent gain for Tesla, although other forecasters do not include the electric-vehicle maker in their estimates.

“With a tightening of consumer demand and automaker incentives, savvy car buyers are likely holding out in anticipation of better deals or widening their consideration set to get the most value,” Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst at ALG, said in a statement. “Hyundai has been a prime example of this trend, they’ve been able to capture sales in a declining sales environment by attracting shoppers from other brands.”